Hey guys, some big news, at least as it relates to this little website here. I’ve landed a part-time gig writing for a Lost blog. Yeah, seriously. It even pays a small but nonetheless tangible sum of money (so shhhh…nobody tell them that last year I was doing it on my own for free).

I can’t double-post my stuff on here because apparently Google gets mad at you whenever the same thing is posted in two different places, although I will be linking to it. It just means my episode recaps won’t be showing up on this site – but it also means I’ll be writing even more than I used to, and not just recaps but news, theories, everything. Daily.

Check it out on DailyLOST.com.

A couple of months ago, when TheCinemaSource started nabbing some exclusive video interviews, I set up our very own YouTube channel (at, predictably, youtube.com/TheCinemaSource). Sure, none of the actors were particularly A-list (or B-list), but over time I was happy to see that people were actually watching them – currently, our interview with Everwood‘s Gregory Smith has 1,139 views.

To breathe some life into the channel, last night I put up some movie clips that the studios had sent to us as promotional material, for Rambo and Penelope (and a much-lesser-known indie movie we’re helping to promote called Military Intelligence and You!). In order to get our name out there, I wanted to watermark each video with “TheCinemaSource.com” in the lower right corner. Problem was, I have no editing software, and besides, all the clips were Windows-unfriendly .mov files.

What to do? I finally found a free online format converter (media-convert.com), switched all the videos to either .avi or .wmv, then imported them into Windows Movie Maker, a ridiculously limited video editing program, but the only one I had since it comes bundled with Vista. It doesn’t even let you place text anywhere you want – I had to pretend “TheCinemaSource.com” was a “subtitle” in order to get it to the bottom of the screen, and then luckily I was able to right-justify it.

Victory! All the movie clips (except one screw-up) are now stamped with TheCinemaSource.com, and when somebody watches a clip, the URL will get burned into their brain without even realizing it. Will this give us any sizeable traffic boost? Probably not, but it puts our name out there, people actually watch them (it’s been less than a day, and most of the new clips already have 50+ views) and at least I actually accomplished something tangible while messing around on my computer for once.

So anyway, if you’re a big YouTube user, you should subscribe to TheCinemaSource’s channel, because I’ll be putting up movie clips regularly and video interviews whenever we do them. (It’s a long shot, but it’s conceivable we could get one with Rosario Dawson.) Because who doesn’t love watching random movie clips out of context? See for yourself:

So have a good time checking out THAT review. I also have a review up for the new Rambo flick, which was surprisingly fun. Aaaaaaaand…that’s all I’ve got for y’all today. It’s the weekend, and I’m seriously considering doing my own laundry instead of waiting until the next time I visit my girlfriend or my parents. The only problem is, that will be breaking a 10-month streak of not doing laundry on my own. Man I rule.

Here it is, folks – the nominees, the tallies, the surprises, what got robbed, and how my predictions stacked up. I usually put this up the day the nominations are announced – yesterday – but I think it’s fair to say the news of Heath Ledger’s death overshadowed everything else. (Incidentally, read my article on that here.)

(The following is also published here and here.)

Nominations by category:

BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR:
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTOR:
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Laura Linney, The Savages

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Coby, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

(For a complete list, go to Oscar.com.)

Nominations by film:

8 nominations:

No Country for Old Men – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
There Will Be Blood – Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Editing

7 nominations:

Michael Clayton – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score
Atonement – Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design

5 nominations:

Ratatouille – Animated Feature, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

4 nominations:

Juno – Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography

3 nominations:

La Vie en Rose – Actress, Costume Design, Makeup
Sweeney Todd – Actor, Art Direction, Costume Design
The Bourne Ultimatum – Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Enchanted – Song (“Happy Working Song”, “So Close”, “That’s How You Know”)
Transformers – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

2 nominations:

The Savages – Actress, Original Screenplay
Away from Her – Actress, Adapted Screenplay
Into the Wild – Supporting Actor, Film Editing
Elizabeth: The Golden Age – Actress, Costume Design
American Gangster – Supporting Actress, Art Direction
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford – Supporting Actor, Cinematography
3:10 to Yuma – Score, Sound Mixing
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – Visual Effects, Makeup
The Golden Compass – Visual Effects, Art Direction

1 nomination:

In the Valley of Elah – Actor
Eastern Promises – Actor
Charle Wilson’s War – Supporting Actor
I’m Not There – Supporting Actress
Gone Baby Gone – Supporting Actress
Lars and the Real Girl – Original Screenplay
Persepolis – Animated Feature
Surf’s Up – Animated Feature
The Kite Runner – Score
Once – Song
August Rush – Song
Across the Universe – Costume Design
Norbit – Makeup

The Surprises:

There were two big surprises in the Actor and Actress categories: Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah and Laura Linney for The Savages. Neither actors won any awards leading up to the Oscars, and most people had written them off. Still, its great news, especially for fans of Jones, who turned in two great performances this year (the other being in No Country for Old Men).

Saorise Ronan sneaked into the Supporting Actress category for her role in Atonement despite being nominated for not much else besides a Golden Globe. (She’s about to hit it big – she’s the star of Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones movie.) Likewise, while Johnny Depp might seem like a no-brainer, many close observers were expecting him to be left out of the Best Actor race on the basis that Sweeney Todd wasn’t really that well received.

In the Best Director race, Jason Reitman (Juno) and Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) made it in despite the general consensus that the screenplays of those films had overshadowed the directing work. Speaking of screenplays, Sarah Polley’s Away from Her was a surprise inclusion in the Adapted race.

Finally, in the Animated Feature race, Persepolis makes it in (hooray!) but so does…Surf’s Up, a flop from early in the summer that everyone forgot about. Okay…

The Snubs:

The main film to get the cold shoulder from the Academy was Into the Wild – which also happens to be my favorite film of the year, not that I’m whatsoever bitter. It managed Supporting Actor and Film Editing, but Emile Hirsch was left out of the Actor race, as was Sean Penn for Director. Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay were also more distant possibilities, but there was no love in those categories, either.

Lars and the Real Girl managed to get its Original Screenplay nomination, but Ryan Gosling was left out of the Best Actor race. Surf’s Up most likely took the place of The Simpsons Movie in the Animated Feature category. Angelina Jolie didn’t make Actress for A Mighty Heart, while Zodiac, unfortunately, was shut out of the Oscar race completely.

My Predictions:

I actually did fairly well this year, getting 80% correct – averaging out to 4 out of 5 in each of the top eight categories. I correctly predicted Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay, but only went 3 for 5 in Best Actor (I had Hirsch and Gosling instead of Depp and Jones), Director (Sidney Lumet and Sean Penn instead of Jason Reitman and Tony Gilroy), and Actress (Jolie and Amy Adams instead of Blanchett and Linney).

So who’s going to win?

Well, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood both have 8 nominations apiece, the most out of anyone. More pointedly, they’re the only Best Picture nominees to get Film Editing nominations – and there is a long history of Editing and Picture matching up. Atonement has seven nominations but is missing the all-important Director nomination, meaning it’s probably out of the running for Best Picture. Juno, the biggest box office success of all five nominees, could turn out to be the little movie that could, but when faced between a quirky indie about a pregnant teen or a male-driven drama, the middle-aged-male-ridden Academy will probably go with the latter.

Right now it’s a horse race between No Country and Blood. That is, until they split the vote and Michael Clayton emerges, victorious.

These went up on TheCinemaSource this evening, but here they are with commentary. I realize nobody will be reading this before the nominations are announced – 5 hours from now – but hey, this is a hobby for me. Writing it all down is the easy part. Besides, I need proof when I get things 100% correct, right? (Sure, bud.)

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The Academy Award nominations are announced bright and early tomorrow morning, so here are my final, official predictions for the eight main categories. Underneath each, I’ve listed a group of “other contenders” to let you know what else is in the running, but don’t worry, I’m not hedging my bets – if one of the “other contenders” gets nominated, then I was wrong. If I don’t mention something at all, it doesn’t mean it’s out of the race entirely – it just means it will be a major surprise when it makes it in. Without further ado:

BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Other contenders: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Into the Wild; American Gangster

Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood can be considered as locked as you can get. Juno has the best box office out of anything and is a safe bet for the Big Indie Movie (this year’s Little Miss Sunshine or Sideways, if you will). That leaves the fifth slot. I’m a huge personal proponent of Into the Wild, but it was finally time to let it go; I’ve always considered it to be the likely 6th or 7th choice, and it looks to end up that way here as well.

Many people are jumping on the Diving Bell and the Butterfly bandwagon thanks to its surprisingly strong showing in the Producers and Directors Guild nominations, but I think when it comes down to it, the Academy will go with what they know: an upscale, awards-baiting British film. Atonement. It’s on shaky ground – it was snubbed in all those guild awards that Diving Bell did so well in – but I bet it makes it in. But hey, if I’m wrong and Into the Wild sneaks in, I’d be very happy.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Other contenders: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Joe Wright, Atonement

Every year, there’s always a surprise nominee in this category – Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Paul Greengrass for United 93, and so on. Many people were expecting Julian Schnabel to fill that role – until he won the Golden Globe and his film started getting major attention and he became anything but a surprise. So I’m sticking in my biggest no guts, no glory contender: Sidney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. The Academy skews old, which means the 82-year-old Lumet might still have a lot more fans than people are counting on, and the film was a critical success.

You’ll notice that my Picture/Director nominations only match up 2 out of 5. That’s a pretty good indication that I’ve miscalculated somewhere down the road – usually it’s more like a 4 out of 5 match. Michael Clayton feels like it will be seen as more of a writing achievement than a directing achievement, but then again I’ve underestimated it all along. Joe Wright, meanwhile, is quite viable as well. But Schnabel, the Coens, and Anderson feel quite solid, with Penn right behind them.

BEST ACTOR:
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Other contenders: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement

Clooney and Day-Lewis are locked, locked, locked. I was certain that Mortensen would get snubbed all along, so I’m still worried about him – he was ignored for A History of Violence, and Eastern Promises didn’t have anywhere near that film’s box office. Hirsch I’m also worried about, but I think thats jitters that goes along with really wanting him to be recognized. Ryan Gosling I’m actually skeptical about – very few people actually saw Lars and the Real Girl, and he already got his hot-young-actor nomination for a better performance – last year’s Half Nelson.

But then again, I’m even more skeptical about Johnny Depp. Yes, he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, but that’s actually a bit of a curse – with the exception of Joaquin Phoenix, I’m pretty sure the past five winners in that award have gone on not to get an Oscar nomination. James McAvoy hasn’t garnered enough attention – and the Screen Actors Guild snubbed Atonement altogether – but you can never really count out Denzel Washington.

BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Other contenders: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Laura Linney, The Savages

Christie, Cotillard, and Page feel good. Jolie is also well-liked in Hollywood – oh, and she gave a great performance – and looks to get nominated despite her film tanking. That leaves the fifth slot; due to the box office success of Enchanted and the Academy’s penchant for young women, I’m putting Amy Adams in there. Elizabeth: The Golden Age was badly received (although Blanchett has plenty of fans in the Academy), Keira Knightley doesn’t have the buzz, and Laura Linney…well, she could be a surprise if there’s a large enough minority that’s a big proponent of her work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Other contenders: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood

I could definitely see Tommy Lee Jones showing up in this category in favor of Holbrook or Hoffman. Otherwise, things look pretty much locked in place. Affleck made a stir in some critics groups, but the award is Javier Bardem’s to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Other contenders: Catherine Keener,

Into the Wild; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

It might be quite stupid to put Jennifer Garner in here, because she’s gotten no love from SAG or the Golden Globes or anyone. But her name is persistently mentioned, and again, the Academy has a thing about talented young women. Then again, it could also be someone out of left field – like Vanessa Redgrave and her six-minute role in Atonement – but that would be something the Golden Globes would do, not the Oscars. Keener, with a SAG nomination, could easily sneak in; Ronan is a more distant alternative.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Other contenders: Steve Zaillian, American Gangster; Judd Apatow, Knocked Up; Steven Knight, Eastern Promises

This category looks fairly locked up. I continue to be skeptical of Lars and the Real Girl, but that’s more of an opinion thing than anything else; like in many of the top categories, it’s conceivable but unlikely that American Gangster could have a stronger showing than anticipated. I’d love to see Knocked Up make it in, but if The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was more age-appropriate to the Academy, didn’t, then why this one?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac

Other contenders: Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War

Both other contenders are major alternatives. The Coens and Anderson are quite locked, and I feel good about Diving Bell, but I could see some other creative shuffling. Zodiac is on shaky ground indeed, and while I’m betting that the Academy will take to Atonement, if they don’t, Hampton’s out. I’d love to stick Penn in there, but I feel like voters are looking at him more as the director than the writer. Similarly, Sorkin might get left out because of a different kind of assumption: that he’s a TV writer, not a feature writer. Of course, now I’m assuming about assumptions. But that’s what Oscar predicting is all about, right?

That’s a boring title for a generally boring roundup of recent work. Yes, Cloverfield was good, but there’s not a whole lot other than that to get excited about…except THE OSCAR RACE! Except there may not even be an Oscar ceremony. Whoops.

Here’s what the past couple of weeks has brought:

Cloverfield review
Teeth review

Lizzy Caplan spotlight (for Cloverfield)
T.J. Miller spotlight (ditto)

Oscar Spiel #7: The Official Oscar Poster, and my First Predictions
Oscar Spiel #6: The SAG nominations and the rise of There Will Be Blood

A friend is holding a Lost viewing party, and on the Facebook invite he posted a bunch of pictures he found that I got a kick out of. Here are my favorites:

Oh, and you might also get a kick out of this: http://copafeel.ytmnd.com/